Because life keeps changing it is not possible to freeze it in statements on paper that are valid for all times. To avoid theoretical mental pitfalls, we have to learn constantly how to discern, feel and notice the impact of our actions on our own behaviour, on our fellow human beings and on nature. Often we fail here. That is why most of us, including dictators, do not register when our time is over. Besides, dictators surround themselves with cronies and yes men who rarely dare to give them the right feedback but keep instead singing their eulogies in the service of their own egotism. That is why the Egyptian foreign minister is shocked by the US demanding the lifting of thirty years old emergency law instead of realizing the real situation and thinking of a peaceful exit. This is also why dictators underestimate often the intelligence of the ordinary people. Thus instead of reading the situation correctly and opting out in time Husni Mubarak is engaged in reshuffling his men, introducing old faces, relying on loyal generals in the military and singing louder the mantra of “preserving the country” fostering old fears to paralyse the mass movement from within.
This situation can develop in Ethiopia and apply to our own dictator. There are differences however. Meles Zenawi, unlike Husni Mubarak, commands purely ethnic armed forces, among the strongest in Africa, and will not hesitate for a moment to crush even a peaceful mass movement by using violence. The Abyssinian ruling classes have always favoured their own ethnic groups, making ethnic oppression and discrimination the hall mark of their supremacy. Now Ethiopia being a multi national empire where the oppressors refuse in theory and practice even to recognize the identities of the oppressed as such, the degree of popular solidarity within the mass movement achieved in Tunisia and Egypt is unthinkable here in the near future.. Finally, Meles Zenawi, unlike Husni Mubarak is still supported uniquely and unanimously by major Western powers. Both are misusing each other for greedy reasons.
The logic of greed blinds not only dictators but also most of the democratically elected leaders in the Western Hemisphere to the movements of history. They also underestimate the intelligence of ordinary people. Why? Antipathies towards the dominant system of exploitation are often diluted because greed has its grips on the exploited as well. The line between the two is blurred by the fact that their relation has become complex and entwined as never before. I can be exploited by those who stand above me higher in the ladder; at the same time I can be an oppressor of those standing down the ladder below. Even the downtrodden keeps dreaming the dreams of the rich. This general greed gives us all the false impression that we are all moving in the same direction and that the system is too solid to be rocked by people living in squalid conditions.
We are passing only through a stage in human history and yet tend to ignore its transitory nature. Personally I have difficulties in reading Hegel. Yet some of his expressions keep resonating in me all the time. “ Die Eule der Minerva beginnt erst mit der einbrechenden Dämerung ihren Flug“. Well, the brutalities of the security machines in Tunisia and Egypt have triggered revolutionary situation. International circles are doing all they can to contain the situation and stop it from spreading. (We have heard the Israeli president supporting Mubarak, which is a good thing for democracy in Israel!) They may succeed temporarily in their race against time. But it is not impossible also that they see a wider horizon of history in the making to allow the revolutionary masses to sweep away anachronistic autocratic rulers in the region for ever so that democracy becomes part of our reality and inspires people to move forward instead of inviting them to cynicism and forcing them to look backwards.